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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 22

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Buffalo Bills 26

What Actually Happened

(5:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at BUF 29 for -7 yards (93-T.Murphy). FUMBLES (93-T.Murphy), touched at BUF 32, recovered by DAL-77-T.Smith at BUF 33. 77-T.Smith to BUF 33 for no gain (93-T.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.56 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model