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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 8

Buffalo Bills 23 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(8:24) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 8, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model