4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 6

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Buffalo Bills 23

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 21-E.Elliott.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.45 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 6, worth +0.63 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model