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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 23

Buffalo Bills 13 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(10:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. Field goal kick deflected off the right upright before crossing over the crossing bar.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model