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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 31, and recovers at DAL 31. 17-J.Allen to DAL 28 for 3 yards (31-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.85 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model