4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:30) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.44 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model