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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to PHI 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-U.Amadi.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.42 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.81 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model