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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.53 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 10, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model