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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 5 at the 50
Seattle Seahawks 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 3
What Actually Happened
(2:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.91 EP
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.95 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.32 EP
KICK
-1.61 EP
- 20% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
- 80% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT
-1.07 EP
What Happened
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -1.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
