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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to PHI 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-U.Amadi.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.31 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.49 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model