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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(7:54) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside (26-Sq.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.43 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model