Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to SEA 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-D.Moore to SEA 22 for 12 yards (45-R.Lovato). PENALTY on SEA-42-D.Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.10 EP
72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model