Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Seattle Seahawks 10

(5:11) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to SEA 40, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-D.Moore pushed ob at SEA 42 for 2 yards (39-C.James).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model