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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to SEA 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-D.Moore to SEA 22 for 6 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model