Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Jets 3

(3:10) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to NYJ 4, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-31-I.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model