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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 6

New York Jets 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 9-S.Ficken 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 6, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model