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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 78

New York Jets 34 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to LV 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Davis to LV 35 for 3 yards (17-V.Smith; 37-M.Canady).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.74 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 78, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 35, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model