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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Jets 34

What Actually Happened

(3:34) (Punt formation) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to NYJ 16, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.40 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model