4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 40

New York Jets 34 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:30) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.72 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.63 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model