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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 48

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Jets 34

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.24 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model