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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Jets 34

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 6-A.Cole punts 32 yards to NYJ 22, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.22 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP