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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 82

New York Jets 34 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to LV 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-T.Davis to LV 34 for 11 yards (37-M.Canady).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.33 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model