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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Jets 34

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to NYJ 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.87 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 59, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP