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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.39 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model