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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 45-A.Ingold up the middle to LV 39 for no gain (20-M.Maye; 31-B.Austin). Oakland challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:40.)

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model