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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 30

New York Jets 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(:44) 9-S.Ficken 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.82 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model