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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 25

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 8-D.Carlson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.21 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP