Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

(4:52) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to CLE 40, Center-46-T.Pepper. 30-D.Johnson ran ob at CLE 40 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.95 EP
65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model