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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 8

Cleveland Browns 31 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 4-A.Seibert 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 8, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model