Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

(14:15) (Punt formation) 42-P.Laird up the middle to MIA 45 for 3 yards (44-S.Takitaki; 12-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.58 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP