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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 17

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.19 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model