Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 58

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(6:40) 9-B.Anger punts 57 yards to IND 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-34-T.Jones. Punt Hangtime - 4.65s

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.08 EP
66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model