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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 60

Houston Texans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to IND 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. Punt Hangtime - 4.94s

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.33 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model