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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 18

Houston Texans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model