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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Houston Texans
4th & 3 at the 34
Houston Texans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 10
What Actually Happened
(11:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 12-K.Stills.
The Three Options
GO
+1.27 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.01 EP
- 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
KICK
+0.83 EP
- 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
- 29% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT
+0.03 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
