Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-D.Carter to HOU 34 for 10 yards (58-B.Okereke; 26-C.Geathers). FUMBLES (58-B.Okereke), recovered by HOU-54-J.Martin at HOU 35. Punt Hangtime - 4.5s

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model