Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(1:25) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to SF 37, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 37 for no gain (37-J.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model