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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 5-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.72 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP