4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 87

Green Bay Packers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to SF 49, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-45-D.Vitale.

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.52 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model