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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to GB 12, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 27-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.27 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model