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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 6-J.Scott punts 41 yards to SF 28, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-R.James Jr. pushed ob at SF 38 for 10 yards (30-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model