Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(:33) 6-J.Scott punts 33 yards to SF 48, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-44-T.Summers.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.66 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model