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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 6-J.Scott punts 32 yards to SF 39, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model