Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

(15:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to GB 20, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 27-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model