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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 65

Denver Broncos 3 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 6-C.Wadman punts 13 yards to DEN 48, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.77 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model