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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 41

Buffalo Bills 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(13:11) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to DEN 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model