Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 85

Denver Broncos 3 – Buffalo Bills 13

(1:02) 6-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to BUF 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 45 for 8 yards (54-J.Watson, 43-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.08 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 85, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model