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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 48

Buffalo Bills 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to DEN 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.70 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model