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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 27

Denver Broncos 0 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 8-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.09 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model