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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 5

Buffalo Bills 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model